In the aftermath of the highly anticipated debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, a shift has emerged in one of Harris’s previously strong polling states—Michigan. Once considered a reliable stronghold for Harris in the 2024 race, new polling data indicates that Trump now holds a narrow lead in the battleground state, signaling a potential shift in momentum as the general election looms.

According to a new InsiderAdvantage survey conducted from September 11th to midday September 12th, Trump leads Harris by just one point in Michigan, 49% to 48%. While the margin is slim, this marks a significant development in a state Harris had been leading in consistently in previous polls. The shift in voter sentiment comes on the heels of the high-stakes debate that sharply contrasted the candidates’ platforms.

InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery offered insights into the findings, noting that Michigan’s contest is reflective of the broader national battleground landscape. “As is the case in most battleground states, the race is extremely close. While there remains some enthusiasm gap in many of these states, with an advantage to Democrats, Michigan has no gap whatsoever,” Towery remarked. He added that the race remains especially tight across all age demographics, with Trump enjoying an edge among independent voters—a crucial bloc in the state.

Trump’s lead among independents in Michigan is significant, as this group often swings elections in the battleground state. The survey found that Trump holds a five-point advantage among independent voters, a factor that could prove pivotal as the election draws closer.

Another key finding of the Michigan poll is Trump’s unexpected growth in support among African-American voters, traditionally a core constituency for Democrats. The survey showed that around 20% of African-American respondents expressed support for Trump—a marked increase from historical levels. While pollsters caution that this figure could be an outlier, it aligns with recent national trends indicating a slight uptick in Trump’s popularity among Black voters.

Towery pointed out, however, that Michigan’s African-American population is smaller than in other battleground states like Georgia, so the elevated support for Trump in this demographic may not have as significant an impact on the overall race. “Even if those numbers were reduced to historical levels, the race would still be within the margin of error,” he noted.

Despite the debate being closely watched, particularly on foreign policy issues, it appears to have had little immediate impact on voter sentiment in Michigan. According to Towery, the debate did not significantly sway independent voters, and overall support for both candidates remained largely unchanged. National polling conducted alongside the Michigan survey suggested a similar outcome, with respondents split 48% to 48% in battleground states.

While Harris was seen as the winner of the debate by a 55% to 43% margin, according to a joint poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group, this did not translate into a surge in her support. Instead, Michigan’s voters appear to remain deeply divided, with Trump holding a slight but significant lead in a state that could once again prove critical in determining the outcome of the election.

With just weeks to go before Election Day, Michigan is shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested states in the 2024 presidential race. For now, though, Trump has eked out a lead in Harris’s once-solid stronghold, making the fight for Michigan even more intense as the campaign enters its final stretch.

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