President Biden is losing support from what is arguably his most critical voting bloc: Black Americans. In key swing states, a new USA Today poll finds that Mr. Biden’s support among the Black community is waning as President Trump makes small — but meaningful — gains in the group.
These voters were critical to delivering both the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination to Mr. Biden after his win in South Carolina, and in putting him in the White House after he carried black voters by an overwhelming margin in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. According to Pew Research Center, Mr. Biden won 92 percent of the Black vote four years ago, compared to Trump’s eight percent.
Now, Mr. Biden’s popularity among Black voters is crumbling. According to the USA Today poll, released Sunday, just 56 percent of Black Pennsylvanians plan on supporting Mr. Biden in November, and in Michigan, just 54 percent of Black voters support the incumbent — numbers that could easily doom his reelection prospects.
Trump, meanwhile, has made small gains among Black voters. Ten percent of Black Pennsylvanians support Trump, compared to 15 percent of Black Michiganders.
Independent and third party candidates are also making inroads in the Black community. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. enjoys seven percent support among Black voters in Pennsylvania and eight percent of the vote from Black voters in Michigan. Cornel West takes nearly eight percent of the Black vote in Pennsylvania and six percent in Michigan. Green Party nominee Jill Stein polls at one percent among Black voters in both states.
In both states, 14 percent of Black voters say they are so far undecided on who they will support in November.
The economy and inflation are far and away the most important issue for Black voters in these two critical battleground states. In Michigan, 42 percent say that the economy and inflation are what is motivating their vote, followed by threats to democracy, which clocks in at just 14 percent.
Mr. Biden and Democrats have been trying to make abortion a central issue in this year’s campaign, spending tens of millions of dollars on television and digital advertisements highlighting the Dobbs decision and subsequent restrictions on abortion rights.
Abortion does not register as a vital issue for Black voters, however, according to the USA Today poll. In Michigan, just eight percent say abortion is their top issue in November, and in Pennsylvania, it’s just eight percent who say the same.
Trump’s gains in the Black community have not been as large as Mr. Biden’s losses, and the former president is still deeply unpopular among Black voters. But in an election that could be decided by just tens of thousands of votes across a handful of battleground states, even the smallest inroads Trump can make among Black voters could put him back in the White House.
His campaign is starting to lean into the Black community more aggressively, deploying Black surrogates and launching a national coalition of Black voters for Trump. Two of Congress’ most prominent Black Republicans, Congressman Byron Donalds and Senator Tim Scott, are both leading candidates to be Trump’s vice presidential candidate.
On Saturday, Trump’s campaign launched the “Black Americans for Trump” coalition with dozens of elected officials and Black leaders. The list includes five members of Congress, several retired professional athletes, religious leaders, and media figures. In a press release announcing the coalition, the Trump campaign noted that the announcement was being made ahead of the Juneteenth holiday.
