A new survey of the presidential race in Florida shows a closer race unfolding in the state. The survey comes shortly after a key ruling raising the prominence of abortion rights as an issue in Florida.
A new survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab suggests that President Trump leads President Biden by just two points in the state, 49 percent to 47 percent. Another 4 percent said they’d vote for other candidates and 2 percent said they planned not to vote.
The director of the lab, Michael Binder, said in a memo accompanying the poll that “it will likely be a very close race six months from now.”
“Voters across the board don’t seem to be huge fans of any of these candidates, even within their own parties,” Mr. Binder said. “In fact, a substantial portion — 15 percent — said they have an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, and 5 percent don’t like any of the three,” Mr. Binder added, referencing attorney Robert Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy.
The poll also asked voters whether a criminal conviction of Mr. Trump might change their minds. Just 24 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for Mr. Trump, while 7 percent said it would make them more likely and 67 percent said it would not change their position.
“A sizable majority said a criminal conviction for Trump wouldn’t affect their vote, which makes sense for folks who have their minds made up,” Mr. Binder said. “What could dramatically impact the election is the 9 percent of Trump voters who said they’d be less likely to vote for him if he’s convicted.”
The poll found that the economy was the top issue, at 27 percent, for the plurality of respondents. This was followed by immigration and border control at 11 percent and abortion rights at 10 percent.
Florida’s state Supreme Court recently handed down a ruling allowing a six-week abortion ban to go into effect and allowing a ballot measure protecting reproductive rights to appear on the ballot in November.
“With the repeal of Roe and the passage of restrictive abortion laws in multiple states, it has been a top issue across the country,” said Mr. Binder, “whether or not that issue alone is enough to propel Biden to victory in November is another story.”
The new University of Florida survey is one of just a few polls conducted since the state Supreme Court decision in Florida. Other surveys have been more bullish on Mr. Trump’s chances, with a Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab and Mainstreet Research poll finding Mr. Trump ahead by 9 points in the state in mid-April.
