WHAT’S MOST IMPORTANT TO YOUNG VOTERS. For the last decade, top Democratic politicians, most notably Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, have struggled to re-create the coalition of voters who elected Barack Obama twice. Minorities, women, and young people — Obama’s strong performance among those groups made it less urgent that he win the votes of white people who have voted solidly Republican over the last several decades. (Interesting fact: The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won the white vote was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.)

Now we have some new information about one part of the Obama coalition. The Kennedy School Institute of Politics has released its biannual Harvard Youth Poll, and it shines light on the priorities of voters aged 18-29 in the 2024 presidential election. You want the short version? They’re worried about inflation, just like everybody else, but even that takes a back seat to abortion.

The Harvard poll tried a smart variation on the old “What is the most important issue?” question. It gave respondents a bunch of issues, and then, in random order, asked whether the young voter thought this issue was more important than that issue or vice versa. The pollsters came up with some fascinating results. 

For example, the pollsters asked, is climate change more important to you than jobs? The answer: No. Fifty-eight percent of young voters said jobs were more important than climate change, while just 38% said the other way around. Another example: Is inflation more important than “protecting democracy”? The answer: Yes. Fifty-three percent said inflation is more important than “protecting democracy,” while 40% said the other way around. (Incidentally, the issue of “democracy” is fraught for pollsters. If you ask respondents about “protecting democracy,” you’re more likely to get a lopsided pro-Democratic response. If you ask about “election integrity,” you’re more likely to get an equal response from Democrats and Republicans. This poll asked about “protecting democracy.”)

The big picture of the poll is that young voters say inflation is more important than anything else in this election — except abortion. For example, the young voters say inflation is more important than climate change, 61% to 38%. Inflation is more important than healthcare, 60% to 39%. Inflation is more important than gun violence, 67% to 32%. All sorts of other issues, too — you name it, and inflation is more important than everything except abortion. (By the way, the pollsters called abortion “women’s reproductive rights,” and that can skew results, too.)

The poll offers a pretty clear road map to, say, a Democratic president with low approval ratings and a lot of liabilities who still wants to win young voters. Make the race, to the extent you can, about abortion. It’s more important than anything for a Democratic presidential candidate, especially since abortion as an issue hurts Republicans and inflation as an issue hurts Democrats. Why waste your time talking up the economy when so many people just don’t believe it — their experience says otherwise — when you can bash Republicans about abortion?

One more thing about the Harvard poll, and it concerns an issue that is the subject of a lot of news coverage from some college campuses these days. Among the issues the pollsters included in the one-to-one comparisons was “Israel/Palestine.” And contrary to what one might have seen in some of the coverage, young voters are not, as a whole, all that fired up about it. When asked to compare, the young voters said the following issues are more important than Israel/Palestine: jobs, taxes, healthcare, immigration, housing, abortion, corruption, gun violence, crime, protecting democracy, inflation, and education. Israel/Palestine is just not near the top of many young voters’ lists. 

Another final thing. The Harvard pollsters included student debt as an issue for young respondents to consider. After all, who would be more sensitive about and likely to be energized by that particular issue? The answer is, very few of the young voters surveyed put student debt anywhere near the top of their list of concerns. In fact, with every single other issue — there were 15 in all — majorities of respondents said that issue was more important than student debt. Yes, there are subgroups of voters for whom student debt is a big issue, and Biden is trying to buy them off. But as a big issue to motivate large voter groups? No.

Overall, what does the poll say about the 2024 presidential campaign? For young voters, it says the contest could come down to the economy vs. abortion, Republican issue vs. Democratic issue. If the candidates fight strength against strength, that’s the fight.

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