Two U.S. Pacific territories are moving closer to a status upgrade from observer to associate member, elevating their status within the region's political and economic policy organization, the Pacific Islands Forum.

The PIF leaders' meeting is set to open Monday in Tonga’s capital, Nuku'alofa.

Tongan Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni has confirmed there will be a vote on new associate members. “Guam and American Samoa have applied,” he told ABC Pacific recently. “We’ll be actually tabling a paper for the leaders to consider.”

Foreign ministers from the Pacific bloc reviewed the applications for associate member status from the two U.S. territories during their meeting on August 9. Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown noted that there is "widespread support" for the applications.

On Tuesday, forum leaders will engage in talks with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, associate members and forum observers. A senior State Department official will represent the United States.

The Pacific Islands Forum has 18 member states, with Australia and New Zealand being the largest economies in the bloc. Neither the United States nor China is a full member, but both countries are dialogue partners.

U.S. greenlights

Until recently, U.S. Pacific territories Guam, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands held observer status for the forum.

In June, however, the U.S. government eased restrictions, allowing these territories to join the PIF as nonvoting associate members, provided they do not take foreign policy positions. This change modified a longstanding policy that had previously barred their participation in international organizations.

Although the French territories of French Polynesia and New Caledonia have become full PIF members, analysts currently do not anticipate that U.S. Pacific territories will be approved for full membership soon.

“It would be a bit like Nebraska voting at the United Nations,” Cleo Paskal, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told VOA.

“The degree to which constituent parts of the U.S., such as Guam and American Samoa, can participate as full members in multilateral organizations is complex,” she said. “On one hand, the people of those islands understandably want to be represented in a forum that claims to speak for the region. On the other, they can't legally sign up to foreign policy positions for the U.S.”

U.S.-PIF summit

A State Department spokesperson told VOA that the United States has made broader and deeper engagement with the Pacific Islands a key priority of its foreign policy.

The spokesperson cited the U.S.-hosted summit meetings with Pacific Island leaders in Washington in September 2022 and 2023.

But neither the White House nor the State Department would confirm whether a third U.S.-Pacific Island Forum summit will take place this year.

In recent years, U.S. policymakers have recognized that U.S. presence and influence in the Pacific cannot be taken for granted, especially in the face of increased Chinese interest and engagement in the region, according to Kathryn Paik, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Paik recently wrote in a CSIS publication that Washington’s realization has led to a series of high-level visits, the opening of several new embassies, the return of the Peace Corps to the region, and numerous financial initiatives across the fisheries, health, law enforcement and economic sectors.