The Democratic National Committee has decided to host its presidential nominating convention this year in Chicago, Illinois. The decision is puzzling. Illinois is a safe, blue state for Democrats, not having voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988. In fact, Chicago hasn’t had a Republican mayor since William “Big Bill” Thompson left office in 1923, more than a century ago.

Perhaps the decision was a nod to Illinois governor and future presidential candidate J.B. Pritzker. Or maybe the DNC just really likes deep-dish pizza and Italian beef sandwiches. 

Regardless, the decision may come back to haunt the DNC, as Chicago in 2024 is starting to look more and more like Chicago in 1968.

The Democrats held their convention in Chicago in August 1968, four months after the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and as the war in Vietnam raged on national television. Violence erupted, the National Guard was called in, and hundreds were arrested.

The parallels between 1968 and 2024 are staggering.

The 1968 convention was disrupted by young adults protesting the Vietnam War. The 2024 convention is being threatened by pro-Hamas protesters, who have vowed to disrupt the proceedings despite being denied permits by Chicago. They’ve likely been emboldened by the capitulation of several universities and colleges to the mob’s wishes.

In 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson declined to run for reelection, leading the party to nominate Hubert Humphrey as its candidate. Today, there continue to be whispers among Democratic donors that President Joe Biden must be replaced at the convention, given his age and poor polling numbers.

If he’s not replaced, Biden could lose the election for some of the very same reasons Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon in 1968. Instead of providing moral clarity on the conflict in Gaza, Biden has tried to split the baby, supporting Israel but also pushing Israel to stop its military campaign against Hamas and agree to an immediate ceasefire.

On the other hand, the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, is pro-Israel and has vowed to support the Israeli state as it prosecutes the war against Hamas. 

Nixon, too, wanted to end the Vietnam War by winning the war, while his opponent was looking for a way out by any means.

However, there is one major difference between 1968 and 2024, and that is the Chicago mayor. In 1968, Mayor Richard Daley, who would not even be considered a Democrat by today’s standards, ordered police to clear anti-Vietnam War protesters out of the city’s Lincoln Park, enforcing an 11:00 p.m. curfew. He then used the National Guard to shut down protests once they had been activated by the Illinois governor.

Chicago’s current mayor, Brandon Johnson, is a radical progressive and supports the pro-Hamas protesters.

There is one more variable that will come into play. Hispanic and black members of the Chicago community continue to protest the city’s embrace of illegal immigration. Chicago has spent millions of taxpayer dollars providing these migrants with phones, food, shelter, and cash — resources the members of those communities believe should be given to them.

Will the black and Hispanic members of the Chicago community join pro-Hamas protesters in demonstrating against the Democrats this August?

It would be a disaster for the city and the DNC if that were to happen. The negative television coverage would be a series of free advertisements for Republicans and Trump.

But it’s too late to move the convention. Plans have been made and contracts signed. Besides, some of the largest and most violent pro-Hamas protests have occurred in other deep-blue states, such as New York and California, so there is really no other safe space to go.

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The DNC knows this, which is why it’s reportedly exploring a hybrid convention for Chicago, with a mix of live and prerecorded speeches, to minimize the chance of disruption. The contrast to the live Republican convention in Milwaukee could not be starker and will contribute to Biden’s continuing slide in national polling and in key battleground states.

Will 2024 be a repeat performance of 1968? Only time will tell, but the damage has already been done.

Jim Nelles is a supply chain consultant based in Chicago. He has served as a chief procurement officer, chief supply chain officer, and chief operations officer for multiple companies.