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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in Pennsylvania, with the vice president holding a one-point lead over the former president, according to a new poll in the battleground state.
Harris, the Democratic nominee, held a 48% to 47% advantage over Republican nominee Trump, with 3% saying they’ll vote for another candidate and only 1% saying they’re not sure.
If the poll includes likely voters who say they lean toward a candidate, Harris and Trump are in a deadlock with 49% each.
In Pennsylvania’s race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. had 49% to Republican challenger and businessman David McCormick’s 43%. Casey has been in the Senate since 2007.
The survey of 783 likely voters was conducted Sept. 18-20 by RMG Research Inc. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Nate Silver, an election forecaster, wrote in August on the social media site X that Pennsylvania is “by far the most important state” in the Nov. 5 presidential election.
Silver’s analysis then projected that Trump had a 96.1% chance of winning if he took Pennsylvania and Harris had 91% chance if she took the state. A 35% chance existed that Pennsylvania would tip the election, he said.
Harris had strong support among nonwhite voters, with 61% having a “very favorable” view of her. Meanwhile, 50% of white voters said they rated Harris “very unfavorable” while 30% called her “very favorable.”
Some of Trump’s strongest support came from the 18-34 age group, with 43% rating him as “very favorable.” While 40% of white voters said they rated Trump as “very favorable,” 41% rated him “very unfavorable.”
The likely voters surveyed held similar views on Trump and Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.
Both candidates had 36% rate them as “very favorable.” Harris had 44% rate her as “very unfavorable” and Trump had 45% rate him as “very unfavorable.”
Fully 83% of voters said they deemed the economy as a “very important” issue; 76% said inflation was “very important.”
Only 5% of the likely voters rated the economy as “excellent,” while 46% said it is “poor.”
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